The world market of paper dynamic between 1961 and 2010

Abstract

This study aims to characterize the global paper market and analyze the trend of production and the risk/return ratio of imports and exports in the period 1961 to 2010. Annual data on production, imports and exports of paper were made available by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). The data were grouped in decades, making the five decades for the period analyzed. The characterization of the sector was conducted by analyzing the percentage participation of each continent, in each examined decade, in paper production. The trend of production growth in the decades under a study was evaluated using the rate of geometric growth (RGG). It was considered as indicative of risk the coefficient of variation and as indicative of return the RGG. Between the years of 1961 and 2010, the paper production became concentrated in the Americas and Europe, featuring the ever-increasing production in Asia and a decreasing production in America. The geometric growth rates showed variations between ascending and descending behavior, always with positive values, with the exception of the American continent in the 2000s. The international imports of paper presented, with the exception of the Asian market, a symmetrical trend for the risk/return with similar performance for exports. The behavior of the risk/return responses indicated that the paper market is an attractive investment for private capital.